Aug 172015
 

The Russian word nekulturny (некультурный), meaning uncivilized, uncultured, was used often in Soviet times by USSR citizens to describe disagreeable behavior, especially on behalf of foreigners. (Implying perhaps a mix of xenophobia and a sense of cultural superiority. Or whatever.)

Today, I feel compelled to use this word and accuse Mr. Putin and his crony government of being nekulturny.

You see, it is one thing to institute a retaliatory import ban in response to Western trade sanctions, even if it means hardships for your own citizens, in the form of rising food prices.

But to bulldoze tons of good quality food into a landfill? That is nekulturny indeed.

Are you trying to imply, Mr. Putin, just like your propagandist predecessors from Soviet times, that Russia has no poverty, no hunger, no soup kitchens? I don’t believe you. You see, even the richest countries have poor people: people who were unlucky, whose lives derailed for whatever reason. And Russia is far from being among the richest countries.

You could have confiscated all that food, punished all the illicit importers, and then like a benevolent tsar or dictator, you could have offered the freshly confiscated food to homeless shelters, soup kitchens, food banks or orphanages, who would have welcomed your assistance with gratitude.

But no, you had to demonstrate that you are a macho tough guy. Shirtless in the Russian winter, fighting polar bears and flying jet fighters. And destroying food.

Nekulturny indeed, Mr. Putin.

 Posted by at 5:30 pm
Aug 152015
 

The more I watch Donald Trump’s performance as an American presidential candidate, the more I admire him.

trump-hair

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t identify with his views. I don’t want him to become President of the United States; in fact, I am quite certain that it would be a disaster for both the US and the world as a whole.

But I admire his performance, intellectually speaking, the same way one admires the flawless performance of a professional athlete or performer.

Trump’s performances are perfect. He radiates an “I am in it to win” attitude, making it clear that coming in second is not an option he would even contemplate. (Recently, a reporter asked Trump if he would consider a vice-presidential nomination should his bid for the presidency fail. Instead of answering, Trump just dismissed the journalist and moved on to the next question.)

His presence on the television screen is mesmerizing. He is not a politician reading a prepared speech in which he himself does not believe at some nondescript campaign location. He is having a conversation with you, the viewer, and he is passionate about everything he says. And he doesn’t care if his words are misunderstood or twisted.

In a certain way, Trump reminds me of Adolf Hitler. Not the Hitler of wartime or postwar caricatures, but the Hitler of the 1920s or 1930s, admired even by some of his opponents for his charisma, his abilities as a public speaker, the manner in which he almost hypnotized his audience. This is precisely what Trump does and oh, is he ever good at it!

And he is fearless and made of Teflon. It seems that no criticism can harm him. He even uses his billionaire status to his advantage (notably, his supporters are predominantly low-income) when he explains that because he is loaded, his campaign or for that matter, his presidency, will not be held hostage by lobbyists.

I have begun to consider seriously the possibility that not only will Trump be the Republican candidate but that he will actually beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. I like Clinton, but next to Trump, she will look like a junior apprentice in TV debates.

What will Trump’s America be like? I don’t know, but I expect the worst.

 Posted by at 12:47 pm
Aug 102015
 

I was once a conservative voter. I voted for the Progressive Conservative party even when virtually no-one else did. I even voted for Kim Campbell back when the PC party was reduced to two seats in Parliament in an historic defeat.

But that was then. Today, we have a party that is conservative in name only: its label has been hijacked by right-wing radicals. The political sins of this government are innumerable, and I wonder if there are enough cats in the world for Mr. Harper (a cat lover) to adopt as a form atonement.

In the past few elections, I voted Liberal. I actually like our MP, Mauril Bélanger, and I was reasonably comfortable with the Liberal Party’s center-right stance.

On the other hand, I was quite disappointed with Mr. Trudeau’s stance on C-51 and his general lack of charisma. The NDP’s Mr. Mulcair, on the other hand, is quite charismatic, and to the extent that I followed it, his performance as Leader of the Opposition was impressive.

So, I hesitate. Liberal or NDP? I am also inclined to vote “strategically”, as I consider both these parties far preferable to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. But I’d still like to know what I am voting for.

Which is why, when the link showed up in my Facebook feed, I decided to complete a questionnaire by isidewith.com, only to find out that both the Liberal Party and the NDP are a close match for my political views:

So far so good, but the rest of this list of parties alarms me. A 75% match with the Green Party I can live with, but the Communists, at 70%? What’s wrong with me (or this survey)? If anything, I’d have thought that my views are more Libertarian, but there I only got a 44% match. As for the Conservatives though, the 7% match does not surprise me: as I said above, this party is conservative in name only.

Meanwhile, even as I mull over the pros and cons of voting Liberal vs. NDP, I continue dreaming about a center-right party that favors rational thinking over ideology…

 Posted by at 7:53 pm
Aug 082015
 

Today is International Cat Day (sadly, it is also the anniversary of the death of our beloved cat Szürke).

This means it is also a good opportunity to remind my (Canadian) friends of my Web site, http://catsforharper.ca/, which documents the sins of Stephen Harper’s government, and offers a means to vote by assigning a number of cats (between 1 and 9) that Mr. Harper would need to adopt to atone for each particular political sin.

I chose this whimsical way to express my disagreement with Mr. Harper, in part, because I do not believe in the politics of hate. I do not dislike Mr. Harper; I dislike (some of) his policies, and these are numerous enough for me to hope for either a Liberal or an NDP victory this fall. (Yes, I know, be careful what you wish for and all that…)

In any case, my friends, shame on all of you who have not yet registered, or registered but not yet voted. (Needless to say, if you ran into any technical issues while trying to register or vote, don’t hesitate to let me know. Oh, and in case it needs to be said, only I see your e-mail addresses when you register, and I have no plans to use your addresses to sell you penile enlargements or Nigerian investments.)

 Posted by at 11:42 pm
Aug 082015
 

So here is what some devout Muslims do in the name of Allah, the compassionate, the merciful, if you happen to hold and make public views with which they disagree: They hack you to death. All in the name of compassion and mercy, I am sure.

The latest victim of Islamic extremism is Niloy Neel, an atheist blogger from Bangladesh, who was hacked to death by a machete-wielding gang yesterday.

And Neel is not the first victim of this religion-inspired violence: He is the fourth victim this year, the fourth person killed for speaking out in favor of secularism, women’s rights, LGBT rights. No perpetrator has been charged yet in these murders, which indicates possible complicity on behalf of the authorities.

But my question is… why kill him? Did someone convince you that you will get 77 virgins in heaven or whatever if you did this? Is your faith (or is it your sexual identity?) really this unsecure that you must eliminate dissenting voices through murder? Or are you simply murderous thugs who use whatever excuse you can find to get your “fix”?

 Posted by at 9:18 am
Aug 062015
 

Signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is delayed again, and perhaps that is a Good Thing.

Unlike many protesters, I am not against a broad trade deal in principle. Free trade can be a good thing for all involved. And frankly, if the dairy or the auto sector has issues with the TPP (these, reportedly, were among the main obstacles) they have their armies of lobbyists to hash it out with politicians.

However, there is another aspect of the TPP that I find deeply troubling: its leaked provisions about intellectual property, specifically copyright.

Canada modernized its copyright legislation recently. The result is far from perfect, but at least it was a result that followed extensive debate and public consultation. The TPP threatens to introduce Draconian new copyright measures, negotiated in secrecy, and upsetting the balance, however imperfect, that was achieved by the current copyright law.

For this reason alone, I argue that the TPP must be rejected. Trade is a good thing, but if the price of trade is further criminalization of everyday behavior (like, ripping a legally purchased DVD to a hard drive for easy viewing, or heaven forbid, breaking a badly designed digital lock to facilitate legal, fair use of a work) then I say bugger off, stuff your deal where the Sun doesn’t shine.

One reason why I am seriously contemplating (for the first time in my life!) voting NDP in the upcoming election is precisely this: the Conservatives obviously like the TPP, and I don’t think the Liberals have the guts to do anything about it. The NDP might… or maybe not, but they are the best hope that there is.

 Posted by at 8:18 pm
Aug 062015
 

This morning, my copy of The Globe and Mail had a pair of postcard-like pictures on its front page:

These pictures are a rather graphic reminder of what happened exactly 70 years ago today: the destruction of Hiroshima, in the first ever use of a nuclear device as a weapon of war.

Thankfully, the last such use occurred only three days later, in Nagasaki. No atomic bombs were exploded in anger ever since. I don’t know how much longer our luck will hold, but I doubt anyone in the 1960s would have predicted a world with no nuclear confrontation for another half a century.

 Posted by at 12:27 pm
Aug 042015
 

A young Hungarian woman from Transylvania, Zsuzsa Nágó, who recently became a citizen of Hungary (the political calculation behind the citizenship regime of Hungary that allows ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries to acquire Hungarian citizenship easily is another story altogether) decided to renounce her Hungarian citizenship in protest against Hungary’s policies towards refugee migrants, including the recently started construction of a border fence.

I can only admire her decision. She puts me to shame: I maintain my Hungarian citizenship, in part, to enjoy the benefits of an EU passport. But I am also a citizen of Canada. For someone whose only other passport is Romanian, this step is a significant sacrifice.

Sadly, I agree with her reasons. And the comments she received from “patriotic” Hungarians (here is one of the milder ones: “Let her move to Afghanistan so that she can sell her pinko-liberal stories to the Muslims there…”) only reinforce my conviction that it is not just the politics of the day: racism and hatred are deeply rooted in Hungarian society.

Thankfully, there are exceptions. A commenter named Gabor wrote:

“I would not connect this with the presently reigning government although the fence was their idea. (And it may not even be the biggest issue.) What has been taking place here for decades is enough for many people to not want to be Hungarian citizens or sometimes even renounce their ethnicity. Anyway, the leadership is what the people deserve. On my part I mostly met decent and kind people in the countryside, ever since I’m alive. Here in the capital most people are selfish, narrow-minded, envious, ill-intentioned, petty and calculating. Just like the ones described by Attila Jozsef [pre-eminent 20th century Hungarian poet; translation is mine, I found a translation online but it was less than mediocre, completely gutting these lines of their real meaning]:

Oh, this is not how I envisioned order,
my soul is stranger here.
I did not believe in existence so easy
for those who sneak.
Nor a people that fears to make a choice,
eyes cast down, furtively ruminating,
finding cheer in plunder.

“Many fail to notice that this is the source of all problems. There is for instance Trianon [location where the Paris peace treaty was signed in 1919, depriving the Kingdom of Hungary of two thirds of its historical territory.] It’s not as if they divided a unified Hungarian people. That would not have been sustainable. They adjusted the political make-up of a divided, splintering country to match reality. True, perhaps they went a little too far, but fundamentally this is what it was. If it wasn’t, then Trianon would not have happened, or it would have been reversed long ago, not just in the imagination of the far right. And those who do not feel comfortable here leave, thus sustaining, even strengthening the present situation.”

Unfortunately, people like Gabor represent a minority. (No, I don’t agree with his characterization of the people of Budapest vs. the countryside, but other than that, I could have used very similar words.)

Meanwhile, Zsuzsa Nágó is heading back to Turkey, to continue helping those who are the most in need.

 Posted by at 11:51 pm
Aug 032015
 

The American-led coalition has been bombing ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria for 360 days.

The Web site airwar.org keeps track of the bombings.

One curious detail: While most airstrikes are carried out by the United States, even minor partners like Denmark or Canada flew more missions that all Arab members of the coalition combined. That despite the fact that for these Arab nations, ISIS represents a potentially existential threat.

 Posted by at 5:08 pm
Jul 252015
 

This is an idea my wife and I have been thinking about for months: a Web site that lists Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s political sins, where visitors can vote by assigning the number of cats that, in their opinion, Mr. Harper must adopt to atone for said sins.

Finally I realized that rather than coding the site from scratch, I can implement it using existing blogging software and plugins.

So here it is: catsforharper.ca.

stylized_cat

In the coming days/weeks, I will keep adding topics. Votes, which require registration (to cut down on comment spam and clickbot activity), are welcome.

 Posted by at 10:31 pm
Jul 132015
 

A few months ago, after a miserable half decade during which Greece lost one quarter of its economy, fed-up Greeks elected a far-left government that promised no more austerity, no more giving in to heartless European demands.

To bolster its legitimacy, the government held a nationwide referendum, in which Greeks voted in large numbers against accepting a (by then defunct) austerity package that was a precondition for more European bailouts and assistance.

And now… the Greek government agreed to an even worse austerity package than the one Greek voters just rejected?

What exactly happened here while I blinked?

 Posted by at 9:56 pm
May 232015
 

The Irish have voted. Yes, once arch-conservative, Catholic Ireland where abortion remains illegal and where homosexuality was only decriminalized in 1993 became the first country in the world where same-sex marriage is legalized through a public referendum. Wow.

 Posted by at 10:24 am
May 192015
 

When good people don’t speak up, bad things happen. That, if anything, is the most important lesson from the history of the 20th century.

So I spoke up today, after reading two alarming articles about Canada’s treatment of would-be Roma travelers from Hungary.

Numbered streets, Miskolc. (Source: HVG.HU)

Numbered streets, Miskolc. (Source: HVG.HU)

Here is what I wrote:

To: <Minister@cic.gc.ca>,
<rob.nicholson@parl.gc.ca>,
<mauril.belanger@parl.gc.ca>,
<cbcnewsottawa@cbc.ca>
Cc: <Chris.Alexander@parl.gc.ca>
Subject: Canada humiliating Hungarian Roma travelers at Vienna airport?
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 11:45:54 -0400
 

Dear Mr. Nicholson:
Dear Mr. Alexander:
Dear Mr. Belanger:
Dear CBC Ottawa:

I am a Canadian citizen, born in Hungary. In recent years, I have watched in dismay how my country of birth is increasingly embracing xenophobia and racism, to the extent that U.S. Senator McCain recently accused the Hungarian government of having neo-Nazi tendencies. Having lived almost my entire adult life in Canada, this is not a value system that I can embrace; rather, my values are the Canadian values of multiculturalism, tolerance and inclusiveness.

Which is why I am deeply alarmed when I read about Canadian immigration authorities acting in a manner that, if the accounts are true, can only be described as racist and xenophobic.

I am specifically referring to two articles, published recently (May 11 and May 18) in the Hungarian weekly newsmagazine HVG, about a Roma researcher and a Roma family who were denied entry into Canada in a manner that (if the accounts are to be believed) was humiliating, racist, and wholly contrary to Canada’s values.

I am providing my partial translations of the two articles below. The Hungarian originals can be found online at

http://hvg.hu/itthon/20150511_Cigany_ezert_nem_repulhetett_Becsbol_egy

and

http://hvg.hu/itthon/20150518_becs_austrian_airlines_romak_kanada

I realize of course that our authorities face the very difficult task of preventing abuse of our generous refugee system, and that these articles present only one side of these stories. Indeed, I sincerely hope that this is the case, as otherwise, the only possible conclusion is that Canada’s immigration authorities willfully and routinely violate some of our core values when it comes to legitimate Roma travelers to this country.

For this reason, I’d like to bring these two articles to your attention, in the hope that you can investigate what actually took place and, should it turn out that our authorities or individual officials acted contrary to our country’s values and regulations, take the necessary steps to ensure that we do not humiliate would-be travelers to Canada solely on account of the color of their skin.

Sincerely,
Viktor T. Toth
3-575 Old St Patrick St
Ottawa ON K1N 9H5
613-789-0510
https://www.vttoth.com/

————————————

First article: HVG.HU, May 11, 2015

[head] Hungarian Roma researcher not even allowed to board the plane

[lead] You thought that all you need to travel to a visa-free country is a passport, valid ticket and enough money? If your skin is a little darker, you may be in for a surprise. We tell a frightening tale, in which a researcher heading to Canada was not allowed to board her plane but instead, was humiliated and shouted at at the airport.

Eva’s travel on April 8 began like anybody else’s: as she already purchased a ticket to Toronto, on this day she was ferried to Vienna, where the direct flight was to depart. Eva was heading to Canada to do a survey on the generational relationships of Roma immigrants there. Hungarian citizens do not need a visa to travel to Canada since 2008, that is, in theory, there are no limitations on travel so long as the traveler has a valid passport, ticket, and is able to support himself financially during the trip. Eva had all these, so she was very surprised when the officers of Austrian Airlines and the airport pulled her aside after a passport check.

According to Eva, the conversation soon acquired the tone of an interrogation, in which officers of Immigration Canada also began to participate through the telephone. A guard kept an eye on Eva, they asked her where, why she was planning to go to Toronto, who she planned to visit. They checked her details, but they stated that they were unable to check with the person who was supposed to provide Eva with a place to stay. (In contrast, this person later stated that there was no sign on his phone of any attempt to call.)

At this point, Eva felt that it would be better to ask for a translator, as things were getting interesting. They were also interested about the amount of money she had on her, but did not ask her to show the cash. Eva had 1000 Canadian dollars, which was supposed to be enough for three weeks; as her lodging was secured, it did not appear insufficient. Eva was beginning to feel desperate, she asked them to check her, her family, as they would see that they have significant scientific and artistic accomplishments – her daughters are actresses, her husband is a musician and director, she doesn’t understand why there would be a problem.

The problem was that they viewed Eva as an illegal immigrant, a potential asylum seeker. A person who might want to abuse Canada’s immigration system. That’s because Eva is a Roma.

[subhead] Immigration Office Instructing the Airline?

After the so-so investigation and even more interesting turn of events took place: the airline stated that the immigration office told them not to fly Eva to Toronto, even though the office asserted that they left the decision to the airline.

Subsequently they left Eva on her own, it took a while for her to find her way back. Her passport was checked once again, and when she had the audacity to request her luggage back, her Austrian attendant reproached her loudly in the presence of the several hundred people in the waiting room. It was not easy to get her luggage back, it took Eva’s son-in-law, who is fluent in German, two times half an hour to get back the suitcase, during which time their car was ticketed, too. “I never felt so humiliated,” recalls Eva who, although she is a well-known Roma intellectual, asked us not to reveal her surname when we wrote this article.

At least she was luck in that her children, who took her to Vienna, were still in town and therefore they were able to return to the airport for their mother. After a little consultation, they decided to visit the Canadian consulate in Vienna, where an interrogation similar to that at the airport followed. The official kindly suggested to Eva to request an immigration visa, so she tried to explain that she has no plans to emigrate. “Why would then want to travel to Canada?” was the question. “I am sorry I didn’t just tell him that I want to be a thief,” said Eva later. This is when they found out that supposedly Canada already penalized airlines because in recent times, 500 illegal immigrants arrived from Hungary. Thus, Eva was not allowed to fly.

[subhead] Canada: Everything was by the book

Although she suffered financial damages, as in addition to the cost of the trip to Vienna, she also lost her insurance (her ticket was refunded by the airline), this was primarily a humiliation. Eva is considering a lawsuit against the airline.

[…]

We also contacted Canadian authorities about this incident. The answer of Citizenship and Immigration Canada and Canada Border Services was that everything was by the book: Canada is fighting against illegal immigration and they cooperate with other countries’ border protection agencies as well as airlines.

[…]
————————————

Second article: HVG.HU, May 18, 2015

[head] “It was a test and they failed” – New scandal at Vienna airport

[lead] Another Roma family heading to Canada was returned at Vienna Airport. They say their legal rights were violated, they were humiliated, and to prevent their travel, Canada’s authorities ignored their own regulations. The government of Hungary remains silent about these cases.

Once again an outrageous incident concerning Roma took place at Vienna Airport, and again involving a flight to Canada. We recently reported about the case of Eva: the Roma researcher heading to Canada was turned back by the combined efforts of Austrian Airlines and Citizenship and Immigration Canada at the Austrian airport, when she was not allowed to fly to Toronto. As it turns out, Canada’s authorities may request a letter of invitation from the receiving party, and if the passenger does not meet requirements (doesn’t have enough money, doesn’t have an arranged place to stay) they can be turned back at the airport. However, Eva reported that neither her place to stay nor the money she carried were checked, and she felt she was singled out because of her Gipsy identity.

Now, hvg.hu received information about another incident that reinforces this suspicion. Vendel Orsos, resident of Hedrehely, and his family were taken to Budapest by his brother-in-law on April 29. They left Ferihegy Airport at 7 AM and were already in Vienna at 7:45. They planned a family visit to Orsos’s sister, a chartered accounting who has been living in Canada for the past 15 years. They were already having their passports checked when he noticed that they were being scrutinized by one of the officials. When they arrived there, the person asked if he spoke English. When he answered in the negative, the official switched to Hungarian and asked, “Where in Hungary do you live?” After he answered, they were removed from the line. Meanwhile Orsos saw that other passengers standing in line behind them were able to board without trouble after showing their passports and boarding passes.

[subhead] Canada’s story keeps changing

Orsos was then connected to a translator from Canada by telephone, who flooded the man with questions about, for instance, his home or his job. “I really didn’t understand why he was asking,” said the man whose background is perfectly respectable, and thus was able to answer both questions with an honest yes. The translator also asked why his children, traveling with them, had different surnames.

This outraged him, but he tried to explain calmly that they decided with his wife that their children should have their mother’s surname, as they hoped this would make it less likely for them to be subjected to anti-Roma prejudices. However, he was legally registered as the children’s father.

[…]

Orsos states that he was patiently answering every question, but after his answers the lady told him that “this was a test and you did not pass,” and thus they were not allowed to fly to Canada. This despite the fact that the family carried a valid letter of invitation.

Orsos’s brother-in-law meanwhile contacted the family that was now stuck in Vienna and also called the relative in Canada, to find out if she was contacted to verify what the family stated at the airport. It turned out that the woman was not even contacted, even though they told Orsos that they were not able to reach her. Then the Canadian relative, Zsuzsa, called the airport in Vienna and asked why the family was not allowed to fly. She says they told her it’s because they did not carry enough money. This was not true, they didn’t even check how much money they carried, remembers Vendel Orsos.

Finally, Zsuzsa convinced them to allow the family to fly but then the airport informed them that they can no longer be found. But the family didn’t even leave the airport, they had no place to go, after the two-and-a-half hour ordeal they stumbled back to the waiting area but — like Eva — they received no help. When they found out from the man’s sister that they are allowed to fly after all, they tried to check in but were told that this was no longer possible. The adults were trying to restrain themselves but because of the humiliation and helplessness, Orsos’s wife began to cry.

[…]

They had no other choice but to return home. They could fly back but they were afraid that in that case, they’d not get their HUF 800,000 airfare back… they lost all trust in Vienna authorities. Therefore, they waited for a relative who drove from Hedrehely to pick them up. Thus they spent an entire day, with two children at the airport, from their early morning arrival until 1 AM. They satisfied every requirement to travel but Canada ignored its own strictly defined regulations, complained Vendel Orsos. Their dream vacation thus ended at 5 AM the next day. The family wrote down their story and even faxed a copy to the Canadian Embassy in Vienna but to this date, they received no answer.

[…]

 Posted by at 2:55 pm
Mar 312015
 

There is this famous quote attributed to Winston Churchill: “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.”

I was reminded of this quote on Sunday, while I watched Fareed Zakaria on CNN discussing the situation in the Middle East.

However, I also feel compelled to add another sentence to the famous quote: “Meanwhile, you realize that they’ve known clearly what the right thing was all along.” Even George W. Bush, presumed to be intellectually challenged by his detractors.

After all, if George W. Bush of all people had such clarity concerning the Middle East, why is the United States of America still meddling and still supporting despotic regimes?

Along with, I am afraid to say, Canada. Our warmongering prime minister just managed to get authorization from Parliament to extend Canada’s anti-ISIS mission to Syria. But who exactly are we fight for there? Syria’s murderous secular dictator? Or Iran’s murderous Shiite proxies? And why is this Canada’s fight anyway?

 Posted by at 4:47 pm
Mar 272015
 

In an interview with Radio Free Europe, a former employee reveals what is a de facto Orwellian Ministry of Truth operated by Putin’s regime in Russia.

In St. Petersburg’s Internet Research center, professional Internet trolls are employed who post comments on various social media sites. The operation is sophisticated: employees play different roles, creating an impression of genuine debate in which, of course, the government line always prevails. Their activities sometimes become surreal, described as a parody of Orwell’s novel. But wait a cotton-picking minute… wasn’t it Orwell’s novel that was supposed to be the parody? What a strange world we live in.

 Posted by at 10:49 am
Mar 102015
 

We live in a strange new world indeed.

A strange new world in which the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran appears to have a much better grasp of the Constitution of the United States of America than the ever so patriotic, ever so constitution-defending lot of Republican senators who undertook to send a letter to Iran in an attempt to undermine their own president.

 Posted by at 12:52 pm
Mar 072015
 

I did not believe that I could become more disenchanted with Stephen Harper’s government, but I was wrong.

Two major legislative items on the Harper agenda this spring are tougher criminal sentences and Bill C-51.

Tougher sentences? Is this really the biggest problem facing Canada? Especially considering that violent crime in this country has been consistently on the decline for the past four decades or more?

As for Bill C-51, the government’s proposed anti-terrorism bill, it is taking this country to a whole new territory by turning our security intelligence service into a de facto secret police, among other things.

Is this really Mr. Harper’s vision of Canada? A petty, vindictive police state? Or is this just cynical politicking in an election year? If so, are Canadians truly this easily frightened into giving up basic liberties for the illusion of security?

I cannot even begin to describe how incredibly disappointed I, a one-time conservative voter, am with Mr. Harper and his Conservative Party.

Sadly, my disappointment extends also to Mr. Trudeau and his Liberal Party’s cowardly decision to support C-51. It is incomprehensible, to be honest, and for the first time in my life, it makes me seriously contemplate voting for the NDP. (Unfortunately, if too many people think like I do, the vote on the left will again be split, and Harper stands a chance to remain in power for another five years. May the powers that be and the Giant Spaghetti Monster have mercy on us if that happens.)

What I would really like to vote for, however, is a conservative government that eschews ideology in favor of fact-based governance. One that does not resort to low-brow populism. One that does not use fear to justify legislation that undermines fundamental rights. One that pursues an agenda of international cooperation, not narrow-minded petty vindictiveness. We used to have conservatives like that in this country. It’s time for them to wake up and return.

 Posted by at 5:47 pm
Mar 042015
 

As I travel to the UAE frequently these days, it is obviously of interest to me when I read about an American facing a felony charge in that country for a Facebook post he made in the US.

It is true that the UAE is not a democratic country. There are no political freedoms there, and opposition activists are sometimes incarcerated. However, the country is by no means a police state. On the contrary, they are proud to have found ways to reconcile conservative Muslim traditions with a modern, fairly tolerant, open 21st century society. As a foreigner, unless you are in the habit of passing bad cheques or farting in elevators, you really have to go out of your way to offend before UAE authorities decide to throw the book at you.

This American may have done exactly that, by posting deeply offensive remarks, directly insulting his UAE employer and management. Such speech may be protected under the US constitution (or not; not even the First Amendment protects false accusations) but the UAE is not the US. The fact that he made the offensive Facebook posts while in the US is an interesting twist, but I don’t think it is sufficient to get the charges dropped.

Still, now that the case has attracted international attention, my suspicion is that he will not receive a jail sentence: his apology will be accepted and he will simply be deported from the country. (His frozen wages, which prompted his outburst in the first place, will probably remain frozen, however.)

 Posted by at 10:05 am
Mar 042015
 

Benjamin Netanyahu warned the United States, in his unusually (and rather inappropriately) partisan address to Congress, that Iran’s nuclear ambitions represent an existential threat to Israel.

How many times do you cry wolf before others stop taking you seriously?

Back in 1993 (!), Netanyahu told the world that Iran would develop a nuke by 1999. That, of course, was 16 years ago.

Just to be clear, I have no illusions nor delusions about the Iranian regime. It is a dangerous regime that supports unsavory causes, not to mention genuine terrorists, around the world. And they certainly threatened Israel in the past.

However, I do not believe that the Iranian regime is planning to nuke Israel. As a matter of fact, I suspect that they are aiming to remain a “threshold” nuclear power for the foreseeable future: that is, develop the technological foundations so that they are capable of producing nuclear weapons on short notice, use their nuclear program as a bargaining chip, but avoid building actual weapons.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s political stunt is probably causing more damage to Israel than anything the ayatollahs could dream up. By playing a divisive political game in Washington, Netanyahu risks losing the one thing Israel cannot afford to lose under any circumstances: bipartisan support in Washington. For this reason, it seems to me that Benjamin Netanyahu represents a greater existential threat to Israel than any Iranian nuke.

 Posted by at 9:28 am
Feb 142015
 

Vaccinations are not without risk, some say. Why should the evil government compel me to expose my child to a known risk, they ask. Why is it my problem if someone else’s child is not vaccinated, they argue.

Well… it boils down to simple math, really. Suppose that once infected, a person remains infectious for a period of time denoted by \(\delta t\). The virulence of the disease is measured by the number of people that a single patient can infect during this period of time. It is called the basic reproduction number, denoted by \(R_0\). If this number is greater than one, we have the potential for an epidemic.

So then, after some time \(t\) has elapsed, the number \(N(t)\) of people who are infectious at that moment \(N(t)=N_0R_0^{t/\delta t}\), if \(N_0\) was the number of infected people at \(t=0\). At least this will be the correct number during the early stages of the epidemic; later, infection rates slow down as a growing number of people will have already caught the disease and the survivors will have developed immunity to it.

But we are interested in the early stages indeed, because the idea is to prevent an epidemic in the first place. So this simple model is adequate.

Now what happens when you vaccinate people? Even if everyone gets vaccinated, vaccines are not 100% effective. If the efficiency of a vaccine is given by \(\epsilon\) (a number between 0 and 1, with 1 meaning 100% efficiency), the aforementioned formula is modified: \(N(t)=[(1-\epsilon)R_0]^{t/\delta t}\). If \((1-\epsilon)R_0<1\), we win: an epidemic is avoided.

But what happens when not everyone gets vaccinated? Some people obviously cannot be: very young babies, people with compromised immune systems, etc. Let’s say the vaccination rate is given by \(\rho\). Once again, the formula for \(N(t)\) needs to be revised: \(N(t)=[(1-\epsilon\rho)R_0]^{t/\delta t}\).

And this is where the problem lies: if \((1-\epsilon\rho)R_0>1\), the potential for an epidemic exists.

measles

Take the case of measles, for which \(R_0=12…18\). Even if we take the lower limit of the given range, \(R_0=12\), it is one of the most virulent contagious diseases out there. The measles vaccine is supposedly 95% effective: \(\epsilon=0.95\). So then, \((1-\epsilon)R_0=0.6\), and we are good: in a fully vaccinated population, measles would disappear in short order. This is indeed what happened when measles vaccinations became common in much of the world starting in the 1970s.

But now, let us think about \(\rho\). The math is easy: If \(\rho<0.965\) (that is, if more than 3.5% of the population are unvaccinated), \((1-\epsilon\rho)R_0>1\). Herd immunity is lost: the disease spreads.

And lest we forget, measles is a very deadly disease. Parents who play Russian roulette with their children on the basis of unsubstantiated fears concerning the vaccine’s effectiveness and side effects forget that often the only reason their child survives the infection is because they have access to first-world health care… the same health care that would have prevented the illness in the first place, if not for the parents’ arrogant stupidity.

These parents should be reminded that in poorer parts of the world, their counterparts often risk their lives to get their children vaccinated. Like parents in Somalia who, defying a ban on polio vaccination by al-Shabaab, smuggle their children to government-controlled areas to get the life-saving vaccine. Obviously these Somali parents are a lot smarter, a lot wiser than first-world anti-vaxxers, be it new age parents who prefer “happy thoughts” (or whatever) over medically approved methods, or nutty right-wingers who distrust the government on everything.

In short, if your political or religious views, or your scientific illiteracy compel you to be as stupid as a doorknob, please find a way to express your stupidity without endangering the health and lives of others.

 Posted by at 3:42 pm