I have been thinking a lot (who hasn’t?) these days about the state of the world, in particular the United States.
Many people I know would like to see Trump gone. Can’t blame them. Unfortunately, I think the mess is deeper, and older than Trump’s presidency. Indirect roots go back decades. Trump is a symptom, maybe an accelerant, but not the cause. And even if he were to vanish tomorrow, the problems would remain.
Looking at the totality of events, from Minneapolis to Venezuela, from Davos to Mar-a-Lago, I realized that I am looking at a system that is under stress. Complex systems neither slide into chaos slowly nor crash instantly: they may reach the point of no return yet show only few outward signs of impending collapse until it actually happens.
A sad apolitical example is Chernobyl: The reactor’s fate was sealed when they removed the last few control rods, but for another minute and a half, everything seemed normal. They could even conduct the test that was the whole point of the exercise that ultimately led to disaster. When the operators finally pressed the famous AZ-5 shutdown button, triggering a series of explosions, it was just the closing act of a play that already had a predetermined outcome. Button or no button, the reactor was already primed for a thermal excursion and eventual explosion.
A replica AZ-5 button sold by the Chornobyl shop.
What is common in these cases is that the moment of no return represents the last moment in time when the system could still redundantly absorb or redistribute stress. It does not collapse instantly afterwards: things may start to SNAP, but it takes a while before the failure of individual pieces turns into a cascading collapse. Meanwhile, those in charge may still be under the illusion that they are in control, when in reality, the system is already in an irreversible, runaway state.
In that light, I think I might be able to put my finger on the precise moment when the US reached the point of no return, the first SNAP. It was early summer 2024, when the system failed to sentence Trump despite the criminal convictions. It was, quite simply, too slow. From that moment onward, America’s famed system of “checks and balances” could no longer keep up with events. The system broke even though from the outside, it still appeared, still appears to be functioning. It’s only now that the SNAPs are becoming a cacophony, with new outrage happening every day.
What we now have in the US – ICE effectively above the law, the militarization of federal enforcement even against local authorities, unilateral presidential action on everything from wars to tariffs with no checks on presidential power, weaponization of institutions of law enforcement, open corruption (e.g., Trump’s cryptocurrency, Venezuelan oil money to Qatar) – will not go away with Trump. There will be others – people who will be more determined and more talented than Trump! – exploiting these things. The system, which has been under stress ever since (at least) the days of Gingrich is, in my reading, broken already, and no event will magically repair it. To my untrained eye, I’d say the US ceased being a free democracy sometime in 2025 and became a hybrid regime, a “competitive authoritarian” state. Internationally, as Carney observed, Pax Americana is history: Instead we have a new world order that in many ways resembles the years before 1914, though hopefully with a saner outcome. (I am not terribly optimistic. As Carney said, you’re either at the table or you’re on the menu. That’s not a prescription for sanity.)
So… I cherish the past 80 years. It’s been an incredible period in human history. But I think it’s come to an end.