Jul 312023
 

My high school classmate György (Gyuri) Matavovszky spent the last almost 17 months volunteering for the Red Cross, helping Ukrainian refugees. Without further ado, with his permission, here is an English translation of his latest Facebook post, which sums up his experiences and his personal journey, while also revealing a lot about the sociopolitical environment in which he lives in present-day Hungary.


I shall now take off the Red Cross vest that I first put on 503 days ago and have worn for about 50 night shifts since then. The Hungarian government is closing down the aid point set up at the BOK Hall due to the war, where newly arrived and other homeless refugees from Ukraine could come until now and receive very modest care, minimal food and drinks, hygiene facilities, camp beds with bedding in a communal sleeping area for one, in some exceptional cases two-three nights (since life in Hungary is so good that everyone’s situation surely gets resolved in one-two days, so no one needs to stay longer).

The hall opened for this purpose at the end of March last year. Back then, aid organizations and representatives of various other bodies were moved here from the train station. There was a children’s corner, doctor, pet care, child welfare services, ticket office, mental health support, shuttle buses ran hourly between the train stations and the hall, 1000-2000 people came through here daily back then, who were very easy to provide for initially, as we received huge amounts of donations. The number decreased exponentially, but willingness to donate even faster, so we soon reached the point where rather than abundance, it was need that made things difficult for us. Then everything slowly shifted to a lower gear, for example in November the medical care was also terminated, which I know because I had to accompany a sick person to the Military Hospital, and wait with them from 11pm to 3am for the four hours the Hungarian healthcare system needs to carry out a routine examination. In February, I was a hair’s breadth away from someone dying in front of me. I failed to recognize the signs of a heart attack in a refugee who arrived across the green, or rather blue, border (the Tisza River) – luckily a colleague of mine was more alert and called an ambulance just in time. In the end he survived, now he lives with his family in Győr, has a job too, we know about him.

But this is just one example, because there were many other very difficult situations, too. It wasn’t just the arrivals from Ukraine that were problematic, we Hungarians often didn’t get along easily either, there was tension even among the volunteers at times. Is it okay to give coffee in the middle of the night—this remained an eternally returning question that still has no consensus answer. Because if we give it, they get more lively and won’t let the others sleep, or make more demands of us, too. But if we don’t, we deny them the one joy they may have that day. We too often lost patience, but I won’t focus further on the downsides of our performance. On the very first night I decided that I’m not here to help the refugees, but they are helping me, and I stuck to that pretty much. I accompanied some of them to trains, planes, airport buses, when that was the simplest or most humane way to give directions. In the process, I always developed a connection with them that could no longer be let go of without tears—the worst is when you stand on the platform, hugging them and they hug you too, and you both know you will never see each other again. These moments were always unbearably painful.

The nights had their own arcs—the shift started at 8pm, by midnight we only felt like we were getting into it, by then we were usually tired enough to start feeling a bit numb from it. Somewhere between 2 and 2:30am was the low point, from when the mental state tips over, you start to feel the dawn coming, and this generally calms you down too. The second half of the night was always much easier, and in the morning not only does the sun rise outside, your heart is flooded with light inside too – I always left tired but with great peace in my heart – I will miss this feeling a lot.

Let no one think the BOK Hall is closing because the war is over and there is no more need for it. The war is not over, the BOK Hall would be needed, but the community is poor, I mean there is very little good intention in the budget, we are completely exhausted morally, in character, currently at rock bottom, though I’ve written a lot about this before. There will be something, somewhere instead, but it will be operated by the pro-government Maltese Charity Service, and for sure it won’t be worth even this much. I won’t participate because I’m not Catholic enough and anyway I’m sick of the whole thing. I was sick of it before too, but the Red Cross supervisor kept my spirit up, his name is Gyuri too, we could never decide whether I’m one and he’s the other, or vice versa, I think it’s the latter actually, in my phone he’s saved as Egyik Gyuri (Gyuri One).

I don’t want to be without social work long term, I hope one day I’ll wear a Red Cross vest again, I hope not too long from now. Now I need to pull myself together for mural painting, but if I can get that going maybe I’ll have time for something similar again. I don’t want to be a social worker, but from now on I want something like this always to be part of my life, because meeting unfortunate people results in a fantastically intense wake-up call, and I think in the long run it really helps staying awake. For example, you understand that they often live a much more real, much more honest, much more self-consistent life than us, who collect a pile of assured money every month, which we then spend floating in a beautiful bubble.

There is a lot of cognitive dissonance in the Red Cross too, but still it’s far from the worst organization in the world, its past shines through its present a bit, in my work I managed to meet exemplary people, including some much younger than me who can behave very consciously, very maturely in trying human situations, and in whom I see a lot of potential still. As I look at it, this hidden potential will be needed sooner or later, or rather is needed now, it’s just very hard for the penny to drop, it’s very hard for us to notice this spiritual need.

I won’t beat around the bush, before the war I too spent my days in deep slumber, and I still don’t feel fully awake. However, I very much hope enough bridges have burned behind me that I won’t be able to flee back to where I was living before. In this service ending now, I feel the next personal message from life: Gyuri – one or the other, doesn’t matter – You are mature enough now, You don’t need to do this anymore, because with what you’ve done so far, you’ve detached yourself enough from your previous mode of existence, you’ve gotten from A to B, and even if you don’t see filthy, dirty refugees around you for a couple months, you won’t slide back to where you were before. Yes, I feel this whole thing was an initiation, a tangible step on the path to becoming human, which I desperately needed, and by some miracle this time I didn’t brush it off with some stupid response, as I’ve done countless times before, but this time not. This is what war does!

 Posted by at 3:07 pm
Jul 202023
 

The new tonight is that notorious murderer Paul Bernardo was lawfully transferred to a medium security prison and shall remain there.

And that’s the way it should be.

No, I am not a friend of Bernardo. He deserves to remain behind bars for the rest of his life and then some.

But he also deserves to be treated exactly like any other criminal in Canada’s justice system. We don’t do mob justice in this country.

Keeping him in a maximum security establishment just to satisfy the public’s demands, just to further the political interests of those in charge would be an appalling thing to do, and I am very glad that Canada has not chosen this path.

 Posted by at 9:01 pm
Jul 142023
 

So here is the difference between a normal and a polarized society.

Suppose your country has a blue party and a yellow party. One day, a prominent blue politician gets caught. Doesn’t matter what, corruption, sexual abuse, whatever. A common, but serious, crime.

In a normal society, the reactions are like this: The blue party expels the person and expresses its regret that such a person held a prominent position within the party. The yellow party condemns the politician, but refrains from generalizing; they express recognition that such a “bad apple” does not represent their opponent.

End result: the political status quo remains, the perpetrator lands in prison, the rule of law is upheld and the respect and trust in the system of institutions remains strong.

In a polarized society, however, something else happens: The blue party defends the person, calls the accusations politically motivated lies, and accuses the yellow party of abusing the system of institutions in a “witch hunt”. The yellow party will point at the perpetrator, using him in propaganda that suggests that his behavior is characteristic of the blue party, which is full of corrupt abusers who think that they are above the law and would twist institutions just to protect the guilty.

End result: political polarization deepens; the perpetrator may go free or, if punished, celebrated as a victim of politically motivated false charges and persecution, the rule of law is undermined, and respect and trust in the system of institutions plummets.

A town square with citizens divided into two opposing groups spewing hate at each other — MidJourney

This, of course, benefits the most those activists and political opportunists who thrive on conflict and corruption. They exist everywhere: their presence is not restricted to any particular political party or ideology.

So take your pick. I much prefer not to live in a politically polarized society.

 Posted by at 2:02 am
Jul 042023
 

It appears that common sense prevailed over politically correct virtue signaling at The Weather Network (or maybe Environment Canada). Pregnant members of the species homo sapiens are again designated by the appropriate word from the vocabulary of the English language: they’re women.

Or is it that heat affects only pregnant women, whereas smoke affects pregnant non-women, too? I wonder.

In any case, I am firmly of the opinion that if we truly strive to build a society in which folks can enjoy life and live to their full potential without fear of discrimination or worse, theatrical excesses like the expression “pregnant people” are not helping. Quite the opposite, while they appease a vocal, exhibitionist minority of activists, they are far more likely to bring tangible harm to others through the backlash they induce. I shall refrain from speculating how much of it is intentional (this is a big world out there, I’m sure some activists are cynically self-serving, intentionally contributing to a problem that they pretend to try to solve, in order to secure their own future, but others are just as likely to be genuine believers in a cause that’s important to them) but I have no doubt that it is harmful.

 Posted by at 3:15 pm
Jun 252023
 

Here is a bit of history of which I was not aware: The window tax.

Back in the 18th, 19th century in many jurisdictions around the world, buildings, especially rental properties, were taxed by the number of windows that they sported.

The advantage of this tax was that it was easy to assess: the assessor just had to walk around the building and count.

The unfortunate reality, namely that the tax most disproportionately affected the poorest of the poor? Well, eventually these taxes were repealed but I wonder how many generations grew up in windowless rooms.

 Posted by at 2:26 am
May 282023
 

Homelessness bugs me.

New York. San Francisco. Ottawa. Ottawa!

What on Earth is going on? Seriously, when did we turn the dystopian vision of a crumbling society in Infocom’s classic 40-year old text adventure game, A Mind Forever Voyaging, into a reference manual on social governance?

The fact that in wealthy societies there are thousands living on the street, not by choice but out of necessity, is beyond shameful. And it’s not like we don’t understand the causes: the rising wealth and income gap, rapidly increasing real estate prices, the lack of affordable housing.

Especially that last one. The lack of affordable housing.

Because, you know, it is so hard to solve. I mean, maybe we need divine assistance, the help of space aliens, artificial intelligence or perhaps good old magic?

Oh wait. It *is* a solvable problem. And you don’t even have to turn into a full blown Marxist to find it. A proven solution can be found in decidedly capitalist Vienna. A solution that, apparently, has worked well for over 100 years.

Though I lived in Vienna in the 1980s, I never knew the nature and extent of its public housing program. Just the other day though I read about it in a Hungarian-language Facebook post that I decided to fact-check. Sure enough, it’s true. Vienna’s solution is real. It works and it works surprisingly well.

I barely finished reading this undated article (on a US government Web site no less) when a friend of mine also sent a link to another. This one was published in the The New York Times just a few days ago. They, too, praise Vienna’s ability to maintain high quality public housing for hundreds of thousands of their residents, with principles that were originally established all the way back in 1919.

So yes, it can be done. Maybe it is time for cities like our very own shiny Ottawa to wake up and get real. Instead talking about it, instead of using it as a political platform or a platform for pointless virtue signaling, instead of building shelters, instead of moaning about the homeless, instead of building subsidized housing from which you are rapidly booted (so that the project remains slum-like, with only low-income residents) perhaps it is time to learn from those damn Austrians.

I, for one, as an Ottawa taxpayer, would happily contribute more of my taxes if our fine city were to adopt a program like Vienna’s, aiming for a stable, long-term solution.

 Posted by at 8:33 pm
Apr 112023
 

So I am playing this iconic computer game, Bioshock, and its sequel Bioshock 2. The games are set in a magnificent underwater city that is in an advanced state of decay and societal collapse: a consequence of unconstrained, unregulated capitalism, Ayn Rand style. In the game’s universe, the city was created by a self-made billionaire in the wake of WW2 and the atomic attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A way for the talented, the willing to escape from a world in which their wealth, the fruits of their labor were taken in the name of government, in the name of a deity, or in the name of the people. The founder’s name, not coincidentally, is a near anagram, a play on Ayn Rand’s name: Andrew Ryan.

As I watch the Twitter saga unfold, increasingly Andrew Ryan’s tragic (for that’s what it is, even if it is self-inflicted) fate reminds me of Elon Musk and his ever wilder shenanigans. And Twitter is beginning to feel like a digital equivalent of Ryan’s once striving city of Rapture: many of its corridors are now flooded, increasingly abandoned except for the remaining gene-altered freak show who still call Rapture home.

As of today, there’s a new alternative in addition to the decentralized world of Mastodon: Substack Notes. Will it be able to pick up the tab as Musk’s Twitter self-destructs? We shall see. Ironically, I would not even know about Substack Notes were it not for Musk’s tirade against it on, well, Twitter…

 Posted by at 10:39 pm
Apr 072023
 

Someone asked the other day, what benefit is there to NATO from Finland’s membership?

I think this meme sums it up nicely.

Yup, the Finns. Who managed to fight the USSR to a draw at the height of its military capabilities, even as the Red Army was steamrolling over the remains of the feared Wehrmacht. Yup, the Finns who share a border with Russia that is as long as all the previous NATO-Russia borders from Poland to Turkey, combined.

Thank you, Finland, for trusting the rest of us.

 Posted by at 10:59 pm
Apr 072023
 

Do people still pay attention to the Doomsday Clock, published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists?

Perhaps they should. Perhaps the fact that they don’t is a big part of the problem.

For here we are, in 2023, and the Doomsday Clock was just set to an unprecedented 90 seconds before midnight. Never before were we this close.

Ukraine, of course, is part of it, along with the recklessly irresponsible nuclear threats of Putin and his cronies. The use of nuclear power stations like Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia as bargaining chips also represent a red line that should never have been crossed.

 Posted by at 7:28 pm
Apr 072023
 

Computer games are often seen as a means to escape reality. But every so often, they come uncomfortably close to modeling reality.

Take Bioshock. In this game, the player explores in a glorious underwater metropolis… A metropolis founded by a billionaire who follows a version of Ayn Rand’s positivist philosophy. Fiction? As I walk around in that underwater city, now on the brink as its society collapsed due to extreme poverty, drug use, reckless medical experiments and worse, and as I listen to the rants of its founder, Andrew Ryan (a name that is an obvious play on Ayn Rand’s) I cannot escape the eerie sensation that I am listening to an alter ego of Elon Musk. While Ryan offers his “plasmids” for gene manipulation as he rants about the “parasites” (basically, anyone who needs any help from someone else), there’s Musk playing around the virtual metropolis of Twitter, now his personal playground, peddling his dogecoin (even swapping out Twitter’s logo for that stupid dog symbol) and labeling NPR as “state-affiliated media”.

And then there’s this classic text game, now nearly forty years old, from the legendary Infocom: A Mind Forever Voyaging. What an incredible experience it was to play that game, playing as an AI (!) protagonist, exploring simulations of a city ever further into the future, trying to find the causes of societal collapse. I read words like, “There is a factory on the eastern corner, and on the northern corner a boarded-up soup kitchen. To the west is a vacant lot, and south of here are some dilapidated apartments. The smell of stale urine wafts from a stairway leading down to a gloomy Tube station,” and suddenly I am reminded of very real images of present-day streets of San Francisco full of homeless tents, or the ever rising number of beggars at major intersections or downtown streets even here in shiny Ottawa. Please, folks, AMFV was supposed to be fiction, a cautionary tale, not a manual.

Homeless in San Francisco (2021)

Of course the Elon Musks of the world have a point: having grown up in a country with a communist regime, I know it only too well. But those who warn about the rising income and wealth gap, the vanishing of affordable housing must also be heard. Their concerns are real and pressing.

Perhaps, like Captain Kirk in the famous Star Trek episode, The Enemy Within, our societies also need both: a little bit of statist communism and a little bit of corporatist fascism to stay healthy, open, welcoming and, ultimately, stable and democratic?

 Posted by at 3:13 am
Apr 042023
 

For better or for worse, we are witnessing history in the making in the great United States.

What it will lead to, I don’t know. I am apprehensive.

 Posted by at 1:46 pm
Apr 032023
 

Mr. Trump arrived in New York. He will be indicted tomorrow.

Part of me responds with glee. This is, after all, a person of questionable morality (to say the least) who willingly encouraged his supporters to chant, “lock her up!” back during the 2016 campaign. What goes around comes around…

But then… what does it say about the future of US democracy? His supporters view it as a politically loaded, trumped (pun unintended) up charge. Politically biased prosecution may become the norm in American politics.

Khrushchev reportedly expressed pride in the fact that when he was removed from power, he was neither killed nor arrested. That represented a very notably break with Stalinism.

Arguably, Trump deserved this indictment. He is quite likely guilty of several of the criminal charges that have been, or will be, brought against him. In principle, he should not be treated any different froom other citizens. Yet it creates a precedent that can be dangerous.

 Posted by at 4:24 pm
Mar 142023
 

I know, I know. Hindsight is 20-20, and here I am, the Monday morning armchair quarterback, making sense of what happened to the US banking system this past weekend.

Then again, my excuse is that I am no expert (not even close) so what is hindsight in my case should have been foresight on behalf of those who do this stuff for a living. The fact that it wasn’t…

How do banks work? Say, you deposit $100,000, and the bank pays you 2% interest. So far so good. But the bank doesn’t just sit on your money. If they did, they’d be losing money by paying you interest. No, they lend that money to me, say, in the form of a mortgage at 5% interest. The difference, that 3%, is the bank’s profit.

Suppose one day unexpectedly you show up and tell the bank that you want to withdraw your money. The bank doesn’t have $100,000 cash. Nor can they call on the money they lent to me, since it is in the form of a long-term mortgage. What they can do, however, is sell my mortgage to another lender. For me, that mortgage is debt; for the bank, it’s an asset, worth good money. So they sell it to another bank, get the $100,000 cash and now they can honor your request to withdraw your funds.

So far so good… but what happens if the county’s central bank raises interest rates rapidly? Say, in a short amount of time the central bank’s rate goes from a fraction of a percent to over 5%? When you come to our bank to withdraw your money, the bank tries to sell my 5% mortgage to another lender, but finds no buyers. Why would these other banks buy my 5% mortgage from our bank when they can invest their money in government bonds that have a 100% guarantee and now a yield better than 5%? Oops. You try to withdraw your money, but our bank is unable to oblige. When a bank cannot pay a depositor, it is big trouble. It basically means that the bank is going under.

When interest rates change slowly, gradually, this does not happen. Mortgages expire and need to be renewed at revised rates. The market adjusts. But when interest rates rise rapidly, the system cannot adjust. There is not enough time.

Central banks throughout the Western world have raised interest rates at a historically unprecedented pace in recent months, to fight inflation. Did they really not anticipate the consequences?

And now the reaction: some financial news sources suggest that, never mind further rate increases, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate may actually come down next month. Now that worries me as it may be an overreaction. Overcompensating a controlled system can actually lead to even larger swings or oscillations.

What bothers me about this is that what I am describing here is not exactly ground-breaking revelation. Beyond the financial specifics, it is basic operations research, its modern roots dating back a century or so. Seriously, when they were raising interest rates as recklessly as they did, what were the central banks thinking? Were they truly not aware of these possible consequences? Or was fighting inflation so important that they opted to ignore the advice of their own knowledgeable experts?

 Posted by at 1:55 am
Feb 242023
 

A year ago today, the (almost) unthinkable happened: Russia launched a full-scale war of conquest against its neighbor Ukraine.

A residential building in Kyiv. From The New Yorker.

I say “almost” because, well, let’s face it, similar things did kind of happen in the past. Russia did, after all, launch a major war against Hungary’s revolutionary government in 1956, in a successful bid to crush the anti-Stalinist revolution and ensure that the country remains firmly in the East Bloc. A similar, albeit smaller-scale invasion took place in Czechoslovakia in 1968.

But still… what is happening in Ukraine is the worst Europe has seen since the end of WW2. And it is naked aggression, more reminiscent of Hitler’s attack on Poland than the USSR maintaining control of the East Bloc during the Cold War.

And it is evil. Let’s not mince words. The excuses are laughable. The aggression is inexcusable. And the war crimes and human rights violations are revolting.

Yet Ukraine stands. Against all odds.

Where this war leads, I have no idea. Frankly, I am surprised that a year later, it remains confined within Ukraine’s borders. Will it remain that way? Or is Ukraine the opening salvo in WW3?

I worry because way too many people now speak of WW3 as something that can be “won”. To be sure, I have no doubt that if WW3 comes, the West will win. But at what price? How many hundreds of millions will die?

Peace would be nice. But we must not confuse peace with appeasement. The world made that mistake in Munich in 1938 and paid dearly for it. Putin must not be rewarded for his aggression. Sometimes, strength is the best guarantee of peace, and signs of weakness invite conflict.

 Posted by at 10:08 pm
Feb 132023
 

In her famous 1984 song, German singer-songwriter Nena sang about 99 balloons that trigger World War III.

Here is the ending of the song, along with my less-than-perfect translation:

Neunundneunzig Jahre Krieg
Ließen keinen Platz für Sieger
Kriegsminister gibt’s nicht mehr
Und auch keine DüsenfliegerHeute zieh’ ich meine Runden
Seh die Welt in Trümmern liegen
Hab ‘n Luftballon gefunden
Denk’ an Dich und lass’ ihn fliegen
Ninety-nine years of war
Left no room for a victor
There are no more war ministers
Also no more fighter bombersToday as I took a stroll
Saw a world, ruined by war
There, I just found a balloon
Thinking of you, I let it fly soon

What can I say? A few more Chinese balloons over North America, a few more large-scale exchanges in Ukraine, and perhaps we’ll no longer need any war ministers anymore.

 Posted by at 6:39 pm
Dec 122022
 

Yes, I am rooting for Ukraine. I am not terribly fond of nationalism. I would love to live long enough to see a free and prosperous world in which national borders are a thing of the past, a quaint historical curiosity, nothing more. But that’s not the world we live in, and when a country attacks another in a form of naked territorial aggression, I root wholeheartedly for the defender.

In light of this, I was delighted to see that the supply of a particular brand of our favorite Hungarian Christmas candy (szaloncukor), which has been made in Ukraine for the past several years, remains uninterrupted.

Thank you, nameless workers in that Ukrainian factory that manufactured these delicacies.

 Posted by at 12:43 pm
Nov 272022
 

Someone just sent me a YouTube link to a video, made in May 2022, showing some of the nightlife in a Tehran shopping district.

What I found especially interesting is the youth of the crowd, but also how ordinary, how “Western” most of them appeared. Were it not for the Persian script and the (rather loosely worn, I noted) headscarves, it could be a scene from any Western metropolis.

And not a single Muslim terrorist in sight! Scandalous, really.

No, I have no illusions about the ayatollahs’ regime. But looking at these scenes makes me wonder: how much longer will a population this young, this full of energy, endure being ruled by senile septuagenarian religious ultraconservatives?

 Posted by at 1:46 am
Nov 152022
 

CNN reports a Russian attack (likely unintentional, but an attack nonetheless) on a Polish farm, killing two.

That’s an attack on the territory of a NATO state.

 Posted by at 2:56 pm
Oct 242022
 

There are only about six days left of the month of October and I have not yet written anything in this blog of mine this month. I wonder why.

Ran out of topics? Not really, but…

… When it comes to politics, what can I say that hasn’t been said before? That the murderous mess in Ukraine remains as horrifying as ever, carrying with it the threat of escalation each and every day? That it may already be the opening battle of WW3?

Or should I lament how the new American radical right — masquerading as conservatives, but in reality anti-democratic, illiberal authoritarianists who are busy dismantling the core institutions of the American republic — is on the verge of gaining control of both houses of Congress?

Do I feel like commenting on what has been a foregone conclusion for months, Xi “Winnie-the-pooh” Jinping anointing himself dictator for life in the Middle Kingdom, ruining the chances of continuing liberalization in that great country, also gravely harming their flourishing economy?

Or should I comment on the fact that prevalent climate denialism notwithstanding, for the first time in the 35 years that I’ve lived in Ottawa, Canada, our air conditioner came online in the last week of October because the house was getting too hot in this near summerlike heat wave?

Naw. I should stick to physics. Trouble is, apart from the fact that I still feel quite unproductive, having battled a cold/flu/COVID (frankly, I don’t care what it was, I just want to recover fully) my physics time is still consumed with wrapping up a few lose ends of our Solar Gravitational Lens study, now that the NIAC Phase III effort has formally come to a close.

Still, there are a few physics topics that I am eager to revisit. And it’s a nice form of escapism from the “real” world, which is becoming more surreal each and every day.

 Posted by at 7:41 pm
Sep 302022
 

I cannot escape the sensation that the unthinkable is drawing closer and closer with the passing of each and every day.

Today, the Institute for the Study of War released a special update, titled Assessing Putin’s Implicit Nuclear Threats After Annexation.

They assess that “Putin likely intends annexation to freeze the war along the current frontlines” and that if successful, “the Kremlin could reconstitute its forces and renew its invasion“.

They stress that although Putin mentioned nuclear weapons as he did in past speeches, he was “avoiding making the direct threats that would be highly likely to precede nuclear use“.

Nonetheless, the situation is wide open for miscalculation. As the ISW asserts, Putin “likely incorrectly assesses that his nuclear brinksmanship will lead the United States and its allies to pressure Ukraine to negotiate“.

The ISW then informs us that they “cannot forecast the point at which Putin would decide to use nuclear weapons“. That language is perhaps scarier than intended and not just because it raises the obvious question, if they cannot, who can? But also because it may be an accurate reflection of reality, as the question is not “if” but “when”.

Concerning Putin’s efforts, the ISW states that “rushing thousands of untrained and unmotivated Russian men to the front will not meaningfully increase Russian combat power“. And that while “Europe is in for a cold and difficult winter, yet the leaders of NATO and non-NATO European states have not faltered“.

In short: Putin is maneuvering himself and the West into a situation with fewer and fewer options, none of which are palatable.

In the end, the ISW comes to a conclusion that I wholly agree with: “The more confident Putin is that nuclear use will not achieve decisive effects but will draw direct Western conventional military intervention in the conflict, the less likely he is to conduct a nuclear attack“. This is why the West must make it abundantly clear that such a conventional intervention is a foregone certainty if nuclear weapons are used.

Is this enough? I have no idea. But it is the one option that might yet help us avoid turning this mess into WW3. Otherwise, the unthinkable just might happen… not in years, not in months, but possibly within weeks or less.

The trouble is, deep inside I suspect Putin already knows that there are no good outcomes left for him personally. And this is why he may decide, like other pathetic despots have done throughout history, that if he must burn, the world must burn with him. The trouble is, unlike despots of the past, Putin indeed wields the power to burn much of the world.

 Posted by at 4:08 pm