I am reading a very interesting document: the results of an “uncensored survey”, conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion in the days leading up to Iran’s elections.
If I interpret their chart on page 8 of the PDF report correctly, 78% of the respondents they interviewed indicated an intent to vote. The number of eligible voters being 100%, 34% expressed support for Ahmedinejad, 14% for Moussavi, 3% for the other two candidates, while 27% were still undecided. If I divide up the undecided equally between Ahmedinejad and Moussavi, I get 61% vs. 35% of the total number of votes cast, with 78% participation.
The actual, official result was 85% participation, with 62.63% voting for Ahmedinejad and 33.75% for Moussavi; the difference is statistically insignificant.
It would be the ultimate irony if Iran’s theocratic regime was brought down by accusations of widespread electoral fraud yet no actual fraud had taken place.