Spinor Info

To all who believe that concerns about Trump’s rapid actions — from his dismantling of the US government, following the Project 2025 playbook with the help of Elon Musk to his threats to annex Canada, Greenland, or the Panama Canal or his attempt to play a much greedier, more corrupt version of Chamberlain in a peace settlement forced upon Ukraine — are not to be taken seriously, here is a cautionary tale, in the form of an editorial from the February 2, 1933 issue of Der Israelit, a leading voice of German Jewry at the time (English translation below):

Die neue Lage

Der Israelit, Heft 5, 02.02.1933

Das Kabinett Hitler, das sich am Montag Mittag in Berlin etabliert hat, bedeutet eine schwere stimmungsmäßige Belastung der ganzen deutschen Judenheit, ja, darüber hinaus, aller der Kreise, die in der Ueberspitzung des nationalistischen Rassen-Fanatismus unserer Tage ein Hemmnis auf dem Wege menschlicher Besittung und weltgeschichtlichen Fortschritts erblicken.

Zwar sind wir keineswegs der Meinung, daß Herr Hitler und seine Freunde, einmal in den Besitz der lange erstrebten Macht gelangt, nun etwa nach dem Rezept des „Angriff“ oder des „Völkischen Beobachters“ vorgehn und kurzer Hand die deutschen Juden ihrer verfassungsmäßigen Rechte entkleiden, sie in ein Rassen-Ghetto sperren oder den Raub- und Mord-Instinkten des Pöbels preisgeben werden. Das können sie nicht nur nicht, weil ihre Macht ja durch eine ganze Reihe anderer Machtfaktoren vom Reichspräsidenten bis zu den Nachbarparteien, beschränkt ist, sondern sie wollen es sicherlich auch gar nicht; denn die ganze Atmosphäre auf der Höhe einer europäischen Weltmacht, die ja mitten im Konzert der Kulturvölker stehn und bleiben will, und dazu das Bewußtsein, in der Wilhelmstraße nun der Notwendigkeit des demagogischen Werbens um den dröhnenden Beifall turbulenter Volksversammlungen bis auf weiteres überhoben zu sein, ist der ethischen Besinnung auf das bessere Selbst günstiger als die bisherige Oppositionsstellung. Den Mitkämpfern von gestern, den Parteifreunden, vermag der neue preußische Innenminister durch Erneuerung des großen Beamtenkörpers in nationalsozialistischem Sinne viel realere Dienste zu leisten als durch offene Zugeständnisse an den brutalen Judenhaß.

Trotzdem wäre es sträflicher Optimismus, sich des Ernstes der Lage nicht bewußt zu sein. Je weniger die neuen Männer dem mit Hunger und Not verzweifelt ringenden deutschen Volk durch gesetzgeberische Wunder wirkliche Hilfe zu bringen vermögen, desto näher liet für sie der Wunsch, ut aliquid feci videatur doch wenigstens ein paar Absätze aus dem rassentheoretischen Programm der Partei in die politische Wirklichkeit umzusetzen, was ohne sensationelle und kompromittierende Judengesetze auf dem Wege des „trockenen Pogroms“, der systematischen Aussperrung und Aushungerung der Juden im wirtschaftlichen und kulturellen Leben leicht geschehen kann.

Inwieweit in einem nationalsozialistischen Beamtenkörper das alte preußische Beamtenpflichtgefühl über die so lange gepflegten antisemitischen Instinkte Herr werden und Schikanen und Rechtsverkürzungen gegenüber Juden ausschließen wird, in wieweit eine Polizei, die einen Nationalsozialisten als obersten Chef über sich weiß, in jedem Einzelfall zuverlässig und unparteiisch bleiben wird, wenn es sich um Juden (oder gar um sozialistische oder kommunistische Staatsbürger) handelt – das sind Fragen und Zweifel, über deren Berechtigung nur die Zukunft entscheiden kann.

Wie die Dinge liegen, scheint es uns noch das kleinere Uebel zu sein, daß durch Tolerierung der neuen Regierung von Seiten des Zentrums die parlamentarische Basis und Kontrolle – trotz eines befristeten Ermächtigungsgesetzes – wenigstens grundsätzlich aufrechterhalten bleibt (man denke zum Beispiel nur an die Gefahren, die sonst der שחיטה drohen), als wenn ein Mißtrauensvotum des Reichstags die Auflösung mit allen ins Uferlose sich erstreckenden Aspekten aus Diktatur und Staatsnotstands-Experimenten herbeiführt.

Or, in English:

The New Situation

Der Israelit, Issue 5, 02.02.1933

The Hitler cabinet, which established itself in Berlin on Monday afternoon, represents a severe emotional burden for all German Jewry, and beyond that, for all circles that see in the exaggeration of today’s nationalist racial fanaticism an obstacle on the path of human civilization and historical progress.

To be sure, we are by no means of the opinion that Mr. Hitler and his friends, having finally attained their long-sought power, will now proceed according to the recipe of the “Angriff” or the “Völkischer Beobachter” and summarily strip German Jews of their constitutional rights, confine them to a racial ghetto, or abandon them to the predatory and murderous instincts of the mob. They not only cannot do this because their power is limited by a whole series of other power factors from the Reich President to the neighboring parties, but they certainly do not want to do it either; for the whole atmosphere at the height of a European world power, which wants to and must remain in the concert of civilized nations, and in addition, the awareness of being relieved for the time being of the necessity of demagogic wooing for the thunderous applause of turbulent mass rallies in the Wilhelmstrasse, is more conducive to ethical reflection on one’s better self than the previous opposition position. The new Prussian Minister of the Interior can render much more real services to yesterday’s fellow combatants, the party friends, by renewing the large civil service corps in a National Socialist sense than by open concessions to brutal Jew-hatred.

Nevertheless, it would be criminal optimism not to be aware of the seriousness of the situation. The less the new men are able to bring real help to the German people desperately struggling with hunger and misery through legislative miracles, the closer lies for them the desire, ut aliquid feci videatur, to at least implement a few paragraphs from the party’s racial theoretical program into political reality, which can easily happen without sensational and compromising Jewish laws by way of the “dry pogrom,” the systematic exclusion and starvation of Jews in economic and cultural life.

To what extent the old Prussian sense of official duty will prevail over the long-nurtured anti-Semitic instincts in a National Socialist civil service corps and exclude harassment and curtailment of rights against Jews, to what extent a police force that knows it has a National Socialist as its supreme chief will remain reliable and impartial in every individual case when it comes to Jews (or even socialist or communist citizens) – these are questions and doubts whose justification only the future can decide.

As things stand, it seems to us to be the lesser evil that through the toleration of the new government by the Center Party, the parliamentary basis and control – despite a time-limited enabling act – at least in principle remains intact (one need only think, for example, of the dangers that would otherwise threaten שחיטה^*, than if a vote of no confidence in the Reichstag were to bring about dissolution with all its boundless aspects of dictatorship and state of emergency experiments.

^*shechita, ritual slaughter

We all know what actually happened in the twelve years that followed this change in government in Berlin.

We do not yet know what is going to happen with the Western alliance, or the United States, in the coming years. But there is zero reason for optimism.

Today I read the first few words of an article in The New Yorker: “Biden’s Pardon of Hunter Further Undermines…”

For the briefest of moments I saw a ray of hope. Perhaps The New Yorker‘s writers realized what really is at stake? Perhaps they were concerned about the trends undermining the rule of law?

Sadly, no. The missing expression (the title was truncated to fit into the column display presented by my e-mail program) was “… His Legacy”. That’s all they were concerned about. Biden’s legacy. The broader context: tactical victories and defeats in the never-ending political warfare in the United States.

One of my cats, mourning the rule of law…

Watching polarized American politics in recent years, it was evident that both sides were consumed by ideology and the desire to defeat the opposing side. Republicans were busy building an anti-establishment creed along with the alarming personality cult of Trump; meanwhile, Democrats have gone overboard with woke nonsense, from cancel culture to fights over pronouns to defunding the police. Republicans went out of their way to “own the Libs”, while Democrats strived to end the “white supremacist patriarchy”. However, there was one crucial difference: By and large (and notwithstanding Republican accusations about “weaponizing” the government), the Democrats mostly played by the rules, i.e., they supported the rules-based system of the American Republic, whereas Republicans declared the system itself, the “deep state”, their key enemy. As January 6, 2020 demonstrated, they were quite willing to step outside the boundaries of the rule of law to have their way.

This, of course, put Democrats at a disadvantage, akin to fighting with one hand tied behind their backs.

But now, I think, this is about to change. Call it Joe Biden’s “fuck you” moment: he decided to use his presidential powers to pardon his own son, Hunter Biden, despite repeated assurances that he had no plans to do so.

I really cannot blame him. When the president-elect is a convicted felon, when many of his nominees for key positions are themselves at the very least the targets of credible accusations of criminal behavior, I suspect Biden had enough, playing by the rules. (Technically speaking it is of course not against the rules for the President to pardon his own family members, even though it is obviously a massive conflict of interest.)

This, I think, is a pivotal, watershed moment, however. By pardoning Hunter, Biden basically declared that the rules no longer apply to their side either. This seems to be yet another nail in the coffin of the great American experiment. Once again I see historical parallels. Two thousand years ago, it was Brutus and his co-conspirators who decided that the rules no longer apply to them either. Granted, pardoning a family member is not quite on par with assassinating a Dictator, but the undercurrent is the same: The rule of law no longer matters. We may yet be generations away from the leaders of America to openly declare themselves emperors, but this is yet another crucial step towards a system of government in which the “first among equals”, the country’s head of state and head of government, is not really an equal anymore but someone entirely above the law.

One of the secrets of the success of the Roman Empire was the fact that the first emperor, Gaius Octavius, better known by the family name he adopted and the title bestowed upon him by the Roman Senate as Augustus Caesar, was truly competent. I don’t expect competence from Trump. However, is VP, J. D. Vance, is another matter. That gentleman seems frighteningly intelligent and ruthless. Makes me wonder if he is, in fact, going to become the de facto first emperor of an emerging imperial United States of America; our modern-day Octavius.

Oh well, interesting times. Love it, to be honest. Things are about to get really… fascinating.

Earlier tonight, I heard a Republican strategist on CBC News telling us not to worry if Trump wins: his bark is worse than his bite.

Damn, I hope he is right. But historical precedents suggest otherwise. I am, of course, especially reminded of how Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933; many who supported him were also convinced that his bark was worse than his bite.

Well, it wasn’t. The rest, as they say, is history.

As a matter of fact, perhaps I am an alarmist, but I tend to think of something else after the spectacle tonight. It is what became perhaps the most iconic moment from the entire Star Wars franchise: the recognition by Padmé Amidala of what just happened when the Galactic Senate granted extraordinary powers to chancellor Palpatine.

Coming back from the land of science-fiction cautionary tales to that of real history: In early August 1914, Sir Edward Grey, Britain’s foreign secretary remarked that the lights were going out all over Europe. Today… well, America was called by the late Ronald Reagan the shining city on the hill of liberal democracy. The lights of this great shining city might have been extinguished tonight. There are other lights of liberal democracy still shining brightly, including the lights here in Canada, but they are much less powerful and rapidly diminishing in number. Liberal democracy, which has always been an outlier in the course of human history, is now fully in retreat.

And, well, I daresay many who call themselves “liberals” bear at least some responsibility. Over the past few decades, life for many in the Western world stagnated or became worse. Incomes barely kept up with inflation, homes became unaffordable. The income and wealth gap between rich and poor rose. Families could no longer promise their children a life that, never mind better, would be at least as good as the lives of their parents. Public infrastructure was often neglected, health care systems remained underfunded. Many Western cities saw a palpable rise in homelessness and visible poverty: Just look at the number of homeless right here on the main streets of downtown Ottawa, minutes from Parliament Hill.

Leaders and activists on the left had ample chance to step in, offer and, if in power, implement real, forward-looking solutions. Instead, they chose to focus on, ahem, the “important” problems of the day: proper pronouns for everyone, DEI programs at workplaces, stamping out white supremacism in math education (I kid you not! Wish it was a joke) and other pressing issues. In light of that, why is anyone surprised that populism won the day?

Sadly I am not. Much as I rooted for Harris, I predicted a Trump victory, and it appears that I was not wrong.

Now we get a chance to find out if that CBC analyst was right after all. Is the bark worse than the bite? I’m not holding my breath…

First, let me express my unbridled optimism: Yes, there will be history books in the future. I hope.

What will they say about our present time? Nothing encouraging, I fear.

They’ll note the date October 17, 2024, as the date when Ukraine basically presented a nuclear ultimatum: If the country is not welcome into NATO, at some point in the future it may very well rearm itself with nuclear weapons. Which, arguably, it has every right to do, since 30 years ago Ukraine gave up what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for supposedly robust security guarantees by, among other states, the Russian Federation.

In unrelated news, several days ago there was a minor earthquake registered in the Dnipro region of Ukraine. Which, incidentally, supposedly coincides with some old Soviet weapons testing grounds. Or not. Ukrainians say the epicenter was several kilometers below the surface and the world is not alarmed. Still…

One of Midjourney’s suggestions for the cover of a future history book

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is gaining. If I had to bet my money, I’d bet on him winning in November. The consequences will likely be catastrophic, both for democracy within the American Republic and for NATO and the broader Western democratic alliance.

In my country of birth, Hungary, Orban continues to reign supreme. And he’s no longer the outlier in Europe: increasingly, nationalists and authoritarians are gaining elsewhere on the continent.

Elsewhere, China continues its saber-rattling at Taiwan, North Korea now sends soldiers to help Russia, the Middle Eastern conflict widens, there’s even a spat between Canada and India over an Indian assassionation of a Sikh nationalist on Canadian soil not long ago.

In short, let me not mince words about this: The world is fucked up badly, and it’s becoming more and more fucked up each and every passing day.

Meh. I am 61, and I have no children to worry about. So maybe I’ll just lean back and watch the show? It’s about to get really exciting.

But yes, I still hope that there will be future history books.