{"id":9912,"date":"2020-03-29T12:45:13","date_gmt":"2020-03-29T16:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9912"},"modified":"2020-03-29T12:45:13","modified_gmt":"2020-03-29T16:45:13","slug":"inadequate-response","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9912","title":{"rendered":"Inadequate response?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>While I applaud the fact that there are very few partisan voices in Canada, and that governments at all levels constructively cooperate with each other, I cannot help but wonder if the measures taken are sufficient to fight this demon of a virus, COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>Take these two notifications that I received on my phone from the Radio Canada app yesterday:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>11:23 AM: \u00c0 compter de lundi midi, les Canadiens ayant des sympt\u00f4mes de la COVID-19 ne pourront plus prendre des vols int\u00e9rieurs ou le train<\/li>\n<li>11:38 AM: Justin Trudeau affirme qu&#8217;Ottawa n\u2019envisage pas de fermer les fronti\u00e8res interprovinciales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>My question is&#8230; why exactly do we still have non-essential travel within Canada? And why exactly are the interprovincial borders still open?<\/p>\n<p>This virus will not be beaten with half-measures. If we are not able to bring down the infection rate, soon an extremely large number of people will become simultaneously sick, completely overwhelming the intensive care capacity of our health care system. Which means that a great many people who could survive with adequate medical care will die.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_9914\" style=\"width: 552px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vttoth.com\/CMS\/physics-notes\/349\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9914\" class=\"wp-image-9914 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SIR-predict-Mar28.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"542\" height=\"407\" srcset=\"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SIR-predict-Mar28.png 542w, https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SIR-predict-Mar28-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 542px) 100vw, 542px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-9914\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SIR model prediction based on US data as of March 28, 2020.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>See <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vttoth.com\/CMS\/physics-notes\/349\">this simple simulation<\/a> of the US situation that I put together, using the simplest epidemiological model. If its predictions come true, at one point in late April more than 20% of America&#8217;s population will be sick. If 5-10% of these patients require intensive care, that is up to 6 million people or more, only a small fraction of which will receive the care that they will need to stay alive. The rest will die. The same thing can happen here in Canada if we don&#8217;t take the necessary measures.<\/p>\n<fb:like href='https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9912' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida grande'><\/fb:like>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While I applaud the fact that there are very few partisan voices in Canada, and that governments at all levels constructively cooperate with each other, I cannot help but wonder if the measures taken are sufficient to fight this demon of a virus, COVID-19. Take these two notifications that I received on my phone from <a href='https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9912' class='excerpt-more'>[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-health","category-22-id","category-29-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9912"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9916,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9912\/revisions\/9916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}