{"id":9802,"date":"2020-01-05T23:44:47","date_gmt":"2020-01-06T04:44:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9802"},"modified":"2020-01-05T23:44:47","modified_gmt":"2020-01-06T04:44:47","slug":"uncanny-coincidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9802","title":{"rendered":"Uncanny coincidence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Back in 1944, Astounding Science Fiction magazine published a short story, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Deadline_(science_fiction_story)\"><em>Deadline<\/em> by Cleve Cartmill<\/a>, about a devastating war on an alien planet, and the development of a uranium fission bomb. The details of the bomb were sketchy, but at least a few of the details provided (about isotope separation, about the concern that a fission explosion might &#8220;ignite&#8221; nearby matter and cause global devastation) were sufficiently accurate to earn the magazine a visit by the FBI.<\/p>\n<p>Something similarly uncanny happened three days ago, when the New York Times published an opinion piece by a former Obama aid about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/01\/02\/opinion\/hypersonic-missiles.html\">hypersonic missiles<\/a>. The article included, among other things, the following paragraph: &#8220;What if the former commander of Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guards, Qassim Suleimani, visits Baghdad for a meeting and you know the address? The temptations to use hypersonic missiles will be many.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Hours later, Suleimani was killed at Baghdad airport (although not by a hypersonic missile, just an ordinary drone strike.)<\/p>\n<p>I doubt Mr. Trump was acting on the advice of a former Obama aid, so almost certainly, this was pure coincidence. But that is just uncanny.<\/p>\n<p>The consequences of the Suleimani attack, unfortunately, are another matter. One has to wonder if there was any real thinking, any real strategy. Even Fox&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/media\/tucker-carlson-blasts-washington-establishment-for-pushing-war-with-iran\">Tucker Carlson chose to question<\/a> the wisdom of this act, blasting the hawks who may have been responsible for talking Trump into taking this reckless step.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: center; margin-bottom: 1em;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/video.foxnews.com\/v\/embed.js?id=6119588174001&#038;w=466&#038;h=263\"><\/script><noscript>Watch the latest video at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\">foxnews.com<\/a><\/noscript><\/div>\n<p>The attack was a godsend to the ayatollahs. It offers them the best possible way out of an wave of protests unprecedented in the history of the Islamic Republic. It finally prompted Iraq&#8217;s parliament to vote in favor of the removal of remaining US troops. And it gave Iran an excuse to completely abandon the nuclear deal.<\/p>\n<p>No, I don&#8217;t think the ayatollahs will escalate. They don&#8217;t have to. The threat of imminent war is always a more effective means to control the population than actual war. And facing an incompetent imbecile, they can just bide their time, while Trump loses whatever goodwill remains among America&#8217;s allies towards his administration by threatening Iranian cultural sites in retaliation.<\/p>\n<fb:like href='https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9802' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida grande'><\/fb:like>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back in 1944, Astounding Science Fiction magazine published a short story, Deadline by Cleve Cartmill, about a devastating war on an alien planet, and the development of a uranium fission bomb. The details of the bomb were sketchy, but at least a few of the details provided (about isotope separation, about the concern that a <a href='https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=9802' class='excerpt-more'>[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,25,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-culture","category-history","category-politics","category-40-id","category-25-id","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9802"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9807,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802\/revisions\/9807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}