{"id":7282,"date":"2015-10-20T10:13:54","date_gmt":"2015-10-20T14:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=7282"},"modified":"2015-10-20T10:13:54","modified_gmt":"2015-10-20T14:13:54","slug":"statistics-and-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=7282","title":{"rendered":"Statistics and predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

The victory of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party last night was stunning, and defied statistical predictions.<\/p>\n

The CBC’s poll tracker<\/a>, last updated the day before the election, predicted a liberal minority government falling far short of parliamentary majority. The also provided a likely minimum-maximum range and a more extreme worst case\/best case prediction:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The interesting thing is that the actual result for the Liberals came up just one seat\u00a0short of the best case prediction:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And\u00a0the election map reveals another thing: It appears that Canada now has its own Jesusland<\/a> (albeit with colors reversed). Indeed, the Conservative Party only had solid results in Jesusland Canada and in the land of Ford Nation.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This, then, is one of Mr. Trudeau’s tasks: to show to people living in these blue ridings that he can indeed be the prime minister of all Canadians.<\/p>\n<\/fb:like>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The victory of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party last night was stunning, and defied statistical predictions. The CBC’s poll tracker, last updated the day before the election, predicted a liberal minority government falling far short of parliamentary majority. The also provided a likely minimum-maximum range and a more extreme worst case\/best case prediction: The interesting thing […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-politics","category-22-id","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7282"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7287,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7282\/revisions\/7287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}