{"id":12341,"date":"2023-12-06T23:57:16","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T04:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=12341"},"modified":"2023-12-06T23:57:16","modified_gmt":"2023-12-07T04:57:16","slug":"an-old-climate-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/?p=12341","title":{"rendered":"An old climate prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

A few days ago, I came across an article that described a remarkable paper, published in the USSR more than 50 years ago, with predictions on climate change.<\/p>\n

Predictions that proved remarkably prescient.<\/p>\n

I first read about Mikhail Budyko’s article in a recent review<\/a>, published on EOS three years ago. What caught my attention, in particular, was Fig. 1 of that article, reproduced below, that shows just how spot on Budyko’s predictions happen to be.<\/p>\n

\"\"

<\/p>\n

Budyko’s 1972 predictions (solid gray lines) of a) surface temperature and b) changes in Arctic sea ice, compared to observational data from NASA Goddard and IPCC predictions.<\/div>\n

<\/p><\/div>\n

Naturally, I wanted to see the original reference, which proved harder than I expected. While it was cited many times, the paper was almost impossible to find. Although I did locate it in an online Russian library, it was only an index entry, with the (unscanned) copy available only for reading in person.<\/p>\n

But then… Fortunate favors the… foolish? Persistent? I stumbled upon a 2020 Russian-language publication containing full reprints of several papers by Mikhail Budyko,<\/a> including the paper in question.<\/p>\n

I took it upon myself then to translate the paper<\/a> in its entirety, with help from one of our AI friends. (AI can do a remarkable job translating technically challenging content, much better than dedicated translation software, albeit some supervision is required.)<\/p>\n

Yes, Budyko indeed accurately predicted human-induced climate change. His concerns about rapid changes, “tipping points” are also well-justified. Notably, his work was written before climate change became political football. It’s the work of an excellent climate scientist, not a political hack.<\/p>\n<\/fb:like>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A few days ago, I came across an article that described a remarkable paper, published in the USSR more than 50 years ago, with predictions on climate change. Predictions that proved remarkably prescient. I first read about Mikhail Budyko’s article in a recent review, published on EOS three years ago. What caught my attention, in […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-history","category-weather","category-25-id","category-34-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12341"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12348,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12341\/revisions\/12348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spinor.info\/weblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}